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Young Hoops' Stars Awaiting Tonite's NBA Draft
Jun. 28, 2005
With just a few hours between now and the Tuesday night's draft, all eyes will be on the drama as it unfolds right up until the very last moment. How will it all pan out? Here are the five most prominent story lines that you need to be up on as you settle in for the big night.
1. Who gets picked at No.1?
This is a question that only GM Larry Harris and the rest of the Milwaukee Bucks' brass can answer, and no one will know for sure until 7:30 tomorrow night. Between Marvin Williams and Andrew Bogut, there's no clear-cut choice. If the Bucks decide they want immediate help, they'll take Bogut. Their current front line is manned by the likes of Dan Gadzuric and Zsa Zsa Pachulia - Bogut would step in and most likely start from opening night. He's a 7-footer with a killer drop-step and a series of polished post moves. He boards, and he has a nasty streak. With Bogut, you know what you're getting. He's a legit big man and he'll be a solid presence for years.
If Bogut is a sure thing, Marvin Williams is a gamble. His physical skills are hypnotizing — 6-9, 230 pounds of pure athleticism. In his workout with the Bucks, he apparently struggled shooting from NBA three-point range, but still more than impressed in all of his athletic tests. Unlike Bogut, Marvin probably won't start right away because he'll be behind Desmond Mason, but over time, who knows how great Marvin can become?
So while the logical choice would seem to be taking Bogut, the Bucks are deathly afraid of missing out on a player with no ceiling on his potential.
2. Why not Sean May?
It's a question that we've been asked hundreds of times over the past few weeks in the wake of our mock drafts. After we left May outside of the lottery, people went bananas. Wasn't this the same cat who straight up dominated the NCAA tournament? How can he possibly be passed over for unproven high schoolers and foreign players? Trust us, we love Sean May. We'd love him on our team, but probably not ahead of guys with more potential.
May is solid, no doubt. He's rugged, he boards, and he's a winner, but he has two factors working against him. At 6-8, he's undersized for his position. Other guys his size who play the three/four are significantly more athletic (see: Shawn Marion).
His second strike is that NBA types think that his ceiling is lower than many of his peers in this draft. Look at the other big men on the board ahead of May: Charlie Villanueva, Fran Vasquez, Channing Frye, and the high schooler, Andrew Bynum. All taller. All more athletic.
May is a lock for the first round of the draft, but he's not a lottery pick. He'll be taken on the edge of the lottery, most likely by the Raptors by the time the 16th pick rolls around.
3. Chris Paul or Deron Williams?
We've never seen NBA scouts spilt down the middle so evenly like this. Everyone we've spoken to is decidedly one way or the other on who's better — there's no in between.
Deron Williams fans love that he's a big, physical guard who can dominate games without scoring and can play killer defense. There are questions about his speed and shooting, but we've heard of him going as high as No. 3.
Proponents of Chris Paul dig his end-to-end speed, his court vision and they feel that he's a better shooter than Deron. While he's not the defender that Williams is, he is nasty as hell and over the past weeks has drawn more than one comparison to Isiah Thomas. And to quote one scout we spoke to, "I know that Chris Paul is quick enough to get into the lane, I don't know if Deron can do that."
Rumors have been swirling about the status of the No. 3 pick, so any kind of major trade could change the outcome of the Paul/Williams matchup. We think though that teams will be trying to jockey into position to get themselves to No. 3 so that they can take Chris Paul. Which brings us to ...
4. What will happen with the No 3 pick?
No. 3 is the prime spot in the 2005 draft. From that position, a team will most likely have access to the best point guard in the draft, any number of talented swing men or even one of the consensus top two picks should they unexpectedly drop.
The pick is currently Portland's, but unless they aren't sold on Sebastian Telfair as their point guard of the future, they're dealing the pick.
The most intriguing trade scenario is also the one that has been most talked about — the Lakers dealing their pick (No. 10) and players for the No. 3 and a current Blazer (Ruben Patterson was mentioned). On Friday, it seemed as if the deal was done, but nothing has been announced and Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak vehemently denied the rumors over the weekend. Smokescreen? Maybe.
We'd bet the house that the Blazers deal the pick. They'd be foolish not to. They've already invested deeply in Bassy, and we have a feeling that the offers come crunch time right before the draft will be too good to pass up. The Blazers will move the pick and a contract/headache for a lower pick and a player who can be an asset.
5. Danny Granger
Two months ago, Granger was hovering as a borderline end-of-the-first/beginning-of-the-second round player. Since then, he has rocketed up the charts to where he is now a mortal lock for the lottery. Why the jump? Granger is mature (he left after his senior year at New Mexico), he can shoot the rock, he's an animal on the glass, he can defend and he has great size for a perimeter player (6-8, 225). In the 2004-05 season, he was the only player in the country to put up a line of 18 points, nine boards, two dimes, two steals and two blocks a game.
But where Granger has really gained ground over the last few weeks has been through his workouts with teams. He has been dominant in his matchups with other potential draftees and he has killed in his skills workouts. Teams are drooling over the thought of being able to potentially play Granger at four positions on the floor.
True, in almost every draft, teams fall in love with players and get caught up in the hype, casting unrealistic expectations on players. But we know what we've seen. Whereas some cats are taken on potential, we've seen what Granger can do and know that he can play right now. He's taken in the top half of the lottery and he makes some GM look like a genius.
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